A virtual firm built as a $100 million experiment in public market investing.

S² Capital sign on a stone facade
S² Capital / Lucerne / Est. 2026

S² Capital is a virtual investment firm investing $100 million of simulated capital in real public markets.

We research companies, build positions, track them against live market prices, and document every investment decision — from first thesis to final outcome. We revisit those decisions over time, measure their performance, and examine what we got right, what we got wrong, and why. All of our research and “trades” are published here, so we can exchange ideas and learn together.

Portfolio · Investment Journal · Research · Performance

Live · Current simulated portfolio value (Close 23 SEP 2026)

$$112211,008844,113300

Since inception +21.08%

Performance

  • S² Capital
  • S&P 500
  • Health Care (XLV)
  • Indexed to 100 at inception · total return
90100110120130140 125.6121.1117.4
SEP 25NOV 25JAN 26MAR 26MAY 26JUL 26SEP 26

Since inception, against the market

Start (24 SEP 2025) Latest Return S² excess
S² Capital $100,000,000 $121,084,130 +21.08% —
S&P 500via SPY $659.67Intraday low (demo) $767.81 +17.37%price +16.39% +3.71 pp
Health Care Select Sectorvia XLV $136.16Intraday low (demo) $168.80 +25.56%price +23.97% −4.48 pp
Nasdaq Biotechnologyvia IBB $141.19Intraday low (demo) $206.60 +46.53%price +46.33% −25.45 pp

Total return on both sides: dividends are counted net of 15% US withholding tax and held as cash, not reinvested. The fund's cash also earns interest at the 13-week T-bill rate. Benchmarks are tracked through the ETF shown.

Dividends, net
$728,236.64
Withholding tax
$128,512.36
Cash interest
$3,041,919.46
Commissions
$0.00
Slippage
$9,994.99
Cash
$83,770,191.07

Holdings

TickerCompanySharesCost basis Market valueWeightUnrealized return
MRK Merck & Co. 251,985 $19,999,965$79.37/sh $37,313,939$148.08/sh 30.82% +86.57%+$17,313,974
Cash USD, earning the 13-week T-bill rate — — $83,770,191 69.18% —

Valued at the 23 SEP 2026 close. Cost basis includes commissions and slippage; unrealized return excludes dividends received ($728,237 net so far).

Investment history

  1. 15 SEP 2026 Dividend Merck & Co. (MRK) $0.85/sh × 251,985 $182,059.16 net (15% WHT)
  2. 15 JUN 2026 Dividend Merck & Co. (MRK) $0.85/sh × 251,985 $182,059.16 net (15% WHT)
  3. 16 MAR 2026 Dividend Merck & Co. (MRK) $0.85/sh × 251,985 $182,059.16 net (15% WHT)
  4. 15 DEC 2025 Dividend Merck & Co. (MRK) $0.85/sh × 251,985 $182,059.16 net (15% WHT)
  5. 24 SEP 2025 Entry Merck & Co. (MRK) Buy 251,985 sh $79.37 / $20.0M
  6. 24 SEP 2025 IC Decision Merck & Co. (MRK) Invest —
  7. 24 SEP 2025 Founded S² Capital Fund opened $100,000,000

Trades

Trade Decision Executed Price convention Shares Fill price Gross consideration Commission Slippage Cash after Weight after
BUY MRK 24 SEP 2025 08:30 ET 24 SEP 2025 Intraday low (demo)ref $79.33 251,985 $79.3697 $19,999,965.04 $0.00 $9,994.995 bps $80,000,034.96 20.00%

Closed positions

No closed positions yet. Every exit will stay on this list permanently, including the losses.

Research

  1. 24 SEP 2025 Research Merck & Co.: pricing in the Keytruda cliff too early Merck & Co. (MRK) Invested

It's past midnight.

I hope you're doing alright.

Take care of yourself.